La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
Real Madrid
vs
Sevilla
4 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | Felix Correia | ||
| 23′ | Dean Huijsen | ||
| 30′ | Arda Güler | ||
| 37′ | Kylian Mbappé | ||
| 45′ | Rubén VargasChidera Ejuke | ||
| 56′ | Robbie UreLucas Stassin | ||
| 56′ | Peque FernándezManuel Bueno Sebastián | ||
| 63′ | Kylian Mbappé | ||
| 69′ | Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez | ||
| 69′ | Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaBrahim Díaz | ||
| 69′ | Jude BellinghamBernardo Silva | ||
| 72′ | Juan Antonio Iglesias SánchezJosé Ángel Carmona | ||
| 73′ | Felix CorreiaAlfonso González Martínez | ||
| 73′ | Marc Cucurella | ||
| 78′ | Arda GülerEduardo Camavinga | ||
| 80′ | Manuel Bueno Sebastián | ||
| 82′ | Yan Diomande | ||
| 84′ | Kylian MbappéCarlos Espí | ||
| 85′ | Federico ValverdeÉder Militão |
Real Madrid
76%
Draw
15%
Sevilla
9%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 605 | Accurate passes | 280 |
Real Madrid vs Sevilla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
| Probability | Real Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.2% | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Market | 76.7% | 14.4% | 8.9% |
| Final | 75.6% | 15.2% | 9.2% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.7% | +0.4% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
3%
Real Madrid and Sevilla expected goals
Real Madrid
2.65
Sevilla
1.06
Total expected goals: 3.71
Real Madrid and Sevilla attack and defence ratings
Real Madrid
Attack
1.57 +57%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Sevilla
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
1.06 +6%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: result vs prediction
Real Madrid 4 – 1 Sevilla
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Deportivo La Coruna v Levante — match page
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page
Before and after this match
Real Madrid vs Sevilla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 75.6% | 1.32 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.8% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 75.6% |
| Draw | 15.2% | |
| Sevilla | 9.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 52.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 28.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
Real Madrid vs Sevilla stats
Real Madrid and Sevilla recent form
| Real Madrid |
WWLWWW |
| Sevilla |
DLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Madrid and Sevilla going into this match
Real Madrid record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sevilla record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
9Real Madrid wins
1Draws
0Sevilla wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-22 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 4-2 |
| 2024-02-25 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-22 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2022-04-17 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2021-11-28 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.4%, draw 14.7%, away 8.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 6.70 | 10.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 7.00 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 6.50 | 11.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.26 | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 6.60 | 10.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 6.97 | 11.77 |
| SBO | 1.23 | 5.42 | 8.10 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| nordicbet | 1.27 | 5.70 | 10.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.25 ▼ -0.01
X
6.65 ▲ +1.40
2
10.82 ▼ -0.68
30 snapshots recorded, from .