Real Madrid
vs
Sevilla
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Madrid
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Real Madrid vs Sevilla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
| Probability | Real Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.3% | 17.4% | 10.4% |
| Market | 77.4% | 14.4% | 8.3% |
| Final | 76.1% | 15.1% | 8.8% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +3.0% | +2.1% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla match preview
Real Madrid enters this matchup with a strong probability of winning at 75%, reflecting their recent form of four wins in their last six matches. In contrast, Sevilla has struggled, managing only two wins in their last six games, resulting in a 10% chance of victory according to our model. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Real Madrid, with an expected tally of 2.66 compared to Sevilla's 1.05.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a probability of 62%. Historically, Real Madrid has performed well against Sevilla, winning five of their last six encounters, with Sevilla yet to secure a victory in that span.
Real Madrid and Sevilla team news
Real Madrid news
- Eder Militao — hamstring injury
- F. Mendy — hip injury
- R. Asencio — broken leg
- Rodrygo — knee injury
- Vinicius Junior — suspended
Sevilla news
- G. Kochorashvili — injury
- I. Romero — suspended
- J. Guridi — muscle injury
- M. Sierra — shoulder injury
- Marcao — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Madrid and Sevilla expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Real Madrid and Sevilla attack and defence ratings
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Before and after this match
Real Madrid vs Sevilla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 76.1% | 1.31 | -5.1% | 1.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.2% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 76.1% |
| Draw | 15.1% | |
| Sevilla | 8.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% |
| No | 37.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 53.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 27.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
Real Madrid vs Sevilla stats
Real Madrid and Sevilla recent form
| Real Madrid |
WWLWWW |
| Sevilla |
DLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Madrid and Sevilla season so far
Real Madrid record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sevilla record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-22 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 4-2 |
| 2024-02-25 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-22 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2022-04-17 | Sevilla | Real Madrid | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2021-11-28 | Real Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.6%, draw 14.7%, away 8.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 6.76 | 12.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 6.50 | 11.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.26 | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 6.65 | 12.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 6.82 | 11.31 |
| SBO | 1.23 | 5.42 | 8.10 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| nordicbet | 1.27 | 5.70 | 10.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .