Sevilla
vs
Osasuna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sevilla
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.37.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sevilla is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sevilla vs Osasuna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sevilla vs Osasuna
| Probability | Sevilla | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.8% | 27.1% | 27.1% |
| Market | 48.8% | 28.0% | 23.2% |
| Final | 48.1% | 27.8% | 24.1% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -0.2% | +1.0% |
Why Sevilla
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 48.1% × 2.02 − 1).
Sevilla vs Osasuna match preview
Sevilla faces Osasuna in their upcoming La Liga clash, with Sevilla holding a 48% probability of winning, while Osasuna stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Sevilla, with an expected goals tally of 1.72 for Sevilla and 1.37 for Osasuna. The model also indicates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Sevilla with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches, while Osasuna has struggled, recording one win and five losses. In their last six head-to-head encounters, Sevilla has secured one win, Osasuna two, and there have been three draws. The confidence grade for this match is A, suggesting a strong level of certainty in the predictions.
Sevilla and Osasuna team news
Sevilla news
- I. Munoz — injury
- J. Guridi — muscle injury
- L. Stassin — injury
- M. Sierra — shoulder injury
- Marcao — muscle injury
Osasuna news
- A. Bonel — groin injury
- A. Oroz — hamstring injury
- J. Herrando — muscle injury
- R. Del Castillo — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sevilla and Osasuna expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Sevilla and Osasuna attack and defence ratings
Sevilla
Osasuna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sevilla vs Osasuna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 48.1% | 2.08 | -0.8% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 48.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Osasuna | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Sevilla vs Osasuna stats
Sevilla and Osasuna recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sevilla and Osasuna season so far
Sevilla record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Osasuna record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sevilla vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Osasuna | Sevilla | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Sevilla | Osasuna | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Osasuna | Sevilla | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-02 | Sevilla | Osasuna | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Sevilla | Osasuna | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-23 | Osasuna | Sevilla | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sevilla vs Osasuna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.8%, draw 28.4%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.60 | 4.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.44 | 4.31 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 3.06 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| unibet_fr | 1.84 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .