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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Hortaleza vs Sevilla

0 – 3 Full time

18′I. Munoz Guarguab
24′R. Ure
35′N. Guillen
38′Sevilla
38′S. Fati Joao
40′Peque
55′B. Bayarri Martin
56′R. Vargas
57′N. GuillenJ. Guridi
58′A. SanganteF. Cardoso
66′C. Gonzalez ElviraA. Cespedes Valero
67′S. Fati JoaoD. Rojas Leon
67′G. KochorashviliM. Bueno
67′R. VargasM. Castillo
71′P. AlvarezA. Archiles
71′B. Bayarri MartinN. Celemin
71′J. Llavero GonzalezE. Muguruza
80′PequeI. Sow

Estadio Municipal El Val, Alcala de Henares

Hortaleza 9%
Draw 10%
Sevilla 81%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Hortaleza vs Sevilla overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hortaleza vs Sevilla

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHortalezaDrawSevilla
Model28.8%26.8%44.4%
Market2.1%4.2%93.8%
Final8.8%9.8%81.4%
Edge+6.7%+5.7%-12.3%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sevilla

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hortaleza ↓ / Sevilla → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 8% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Hortaleza and Sevilla expected goals

Hortaleza 1.23
Sevilla 1.64

Total expected goals: 2.87

Hortaleza and Sevilla attack and defence ratings

Hortaleza

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Sevilla

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hortaleza vs Sevilla: result vs prediction

Hortaleza 0 – 3 Sevilla

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

Hortaleza vs Sevilla markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sevilla 81.4% 1.23 -12.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.9% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 91.2% 1.10 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.3% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hortaleza8.8%
Draw9.8%
Sevilla81.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%
Both teams to scoreYes58.6%
No41.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)18.6%
12 (either side)90.2%
X2 (draw or away)91.2%
Handicap -1Sevilla win24.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss54.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
1-29.3%
0-17.9%

Hortaleza vs Sevilla stats

Hortaleza and Sevilla recent form

newest first
Hortaleza DW
Sevilla WLDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Hortaleza vs Sevilla head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Hortaleza vs Sevilla odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 2.1%, draw 4.2%, away 93.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 18.00 23.00 1.06
Bet365 51.00 15.00 1.02
BetVictor 46.00 11.50 1.01
Betano 28.00 11.25 1.02
Betfair 91.00 41.00 1.02
Dafabet 60.00 23.00 1.02
William Hill 36.00 23.00 1.03

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.