Osasuna
vs
Racing Santander
Garuda Lions Prediction: Osasuna
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Osasuna vs Racing Santander overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
| Probability | Osasuna | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.0% | 23.8% | 29.1% |
| Market | 48.2% | 25.5% | 26.3% |
| Final | 47.9% | 25.1% | 27.0% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -1.7% | +2.8% |
Why Osasuna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.69.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander match preview
Osasuna will face Racing Santander in their upcoming La Liga match, with a probability of winning set at 48%, while Racing Santander stands at 27% and a draw at 26%. The expected goals for Osasuna is 2.05, compared to Racing Santander's 1.68, indicating a competitive matchup. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Osasuna, with a 74% chance for both teams to score and a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Osasuna has struggled with five matches resulting in four losses and one win, while Racing Santander has shown some resilience, with two wins and three losses in their last six games. This context, combined with a confidence grade of A for the forecast, suggests a potentially engaging encounter.
Osasuna and Racing Santander team news
Osasuna news
- A. Bonel — inactive
- A. Oroz — injury
- J. Herrando — muscle injury
- K. Barja — muscle injury
- R. Del Castillo — muscle injury
- R. Moro — muscle injury
Racing Santander news
- S. Eriksson — shoulder injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Osasuna and Racing Santander expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Osasuna and Racing Santander attack and defence ratings
Osasuna
Racing Santander
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Osasuna vs Racing Santander markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 47.9% | 2.09 | -1.1% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 47.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Racing Santander | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% |
| No | 26.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Osasuna win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Osasuna vs Racing Santander stats
Osasuna and Racing Santander recent form
| Osasuna |
LDLLLW |
| Racing Santander |
DLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Osasuna and Racing Santander season so far
Osasuna record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Santander record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Osasuna | Racing Santander | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Osasuna | Racing Santander | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2012-05-13 | Racing Santander | Osasuna | La Liga | 2-4 |
| 2012-01-15 | Osasuna | Racing Santander | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2011-03-13 | Osasuna | Racing Santander | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2010-10-31 | Racing Santander | Osasuna | La Liga | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 25.9%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.78 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.68 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.77 | 3.72 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.28 | 3.06 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.40 | 4.26 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .