Real Madrid
vs
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Madrid
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Probability | Real Madrid | Draw | RasenBallsport Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.8% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.8% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig match preview
Real Madrid is favored to win against RasenBallsport Leipzig, with a 64% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has an 8% likelihood. The expected goals are 2.69 for Real Madrid and 1.42 for Leipzig, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
Both teams are expected to score, with a 71% probability of this occurring. Additionally, there is a high chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, projected at 78%. Recent form shows Real Madrid with mixed results, while Leipzig has also experienced fluctuations in performance. The confidence grade for this prediction is A, suggesting strong conviction in the forecasted outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Madrid and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.11
Real Madrid and RasenBallsport Leipzig attack and defence ratings
Real Madrid
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 63.8% |
| Draw | 18.4% | |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 44.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 36.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 6.9% |
Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig stats
Real Madrid and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form
| Real Madrid |
LWWWLW |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig |
LWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.