Napoli
vs
Bodo/Glimt
Garuda Lions Prediction: Napoli
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
| Probability | Napoli | Draw | Bodo/Glimt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 23.5% | 33.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.9% | 23.5% | 33.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt match preview
Napoli faces Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League with a kickoff scheduled for October 20, 2026. The model assigns Napoli a 43% chance of winning, while Bodo/Glimt has a 34% probability, and a draw stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Napoli, with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, with a 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Napoli has recorded a draw, followed by a win and three losses, while Bodo/Glimt has shown stronger performance with four wins and two losses in their last six matches. The expected goals indicate Napoli at 1.92 and Bodo/Glimt at 1.69, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Napoli and Bodo/Glimt expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Napoli and Bodo/Glimt attack and defence ratings
Napoli
Bodo/Glimt
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 42.9% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Bodo/Glimt | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% |
| No | 29.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt stats
Napoli and Bodo/Glimt recent form
| Napoli |
DWLLLW |
| Bodo/Glimt |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.