Bodo/Glimt
vs
Valerenga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bodo/Glimt
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga
| Probability | Bodo/Glimt | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.0% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 71.0% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bodo/Glimt
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.40 vs 1.63.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga match preview
Bodo/Glimt enters the match against Valerenga with a strong 71% probability of winning, reflecting their recent form of four wins and one loss in their last six matches. The expected goals for Bodo/Glimt stand at 3.40, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Valerenga's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.63. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1, with an 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% probability that both teams will score.
In their last three encounters, Bodo/Glimt has secured two victories against Valerenga, who has managed one win. Valerenga's recent form shows struggles, with only one win and two draws in their last six matches, highlighting their challenges heading into this fixture. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.03
Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga attack and defence ratings
Bodo/Glimt
Valerenga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bodo/Glimt | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bodo/Glimt win | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bodo/Glimt | 71.0% |
| Draw | 14.5% | |
| Valerenga | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.1% |
| No | 21.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bodo/Glimt win | 53.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 29.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.0% |
| 2-1 | 6.2% | |
| 4-1 | 5.9% |
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga stats
Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga recent form
| Bodo/Glimt |
WWWWLW |
| Valerenga |
LDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga season so far
Bodo/Glimt record
- They have won 17 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga record
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Valerenga | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Valerenga | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Bodo/Glimt | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 7-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.