VfB Stuttgart
vs
Atletico Madrid
Garuda Lions Prediction: VfB Stuttgart
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid
| Probability | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 22.0% | 35.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.7% | 22.0% | 35.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid match preview
VfB Stuttgart faces Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on October 20, 2026. The model indicates a 43% probability of a Stuttgart victory, while Atletico Madrid has a 35% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Stuttgart, with an 8% probability. Both teams show a strong inclination towards scoring, with 76% likelihood for both teams to find the net and a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of expected goals, VfB Stuttgart is projected to score 2.11, while Atletico Madrid is expected to net 1.91. Recent form shows Stuttgart with a mixed record of L-L-W-W-L-W, while Atletico Madrid has a stronger performance with W-W-W-L-L-W. The confidence grade for this matchup is A, indicating a solid basis for the probabilities presented.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.02
VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings
VfB Stuttgart
Atletico Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 42.7% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 35.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.6% |
| No | 24.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid stats
VfB Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid recent form
| VfB Stuttgart |
LLWWLW |
| Atletico Madrid |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.