Garuda Lions
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NM Cupen · Full time ·Round of 32

Lillestrom vs Sogndal

2 – 1 Full time

11′P. Asp
46′D. BassiFelix Va
46′P. AspO. Helen
46′E. L. HillestadF. Flo
46′V. HagenR. Onyango
61′T. PippolaK. Arierhi
66′T. OlsenF. Gulbrandsen
66′K. KrygardF. Ottosson
66′H. Melland
68′E. HovlandE. Mensah
72′M. Oren
75′K. Arierhi
76′F. Gulbrandsen
90′H. MellandY. Ibrahimaj
90′G. NordhY. Paintsil

Referee: M. Lien

Lillestrom 67%
Draw 12%
Sogndal 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Lillestrom vs Sogndal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Sogndal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLillestromDrawSogndal
Model11.6%19.4%69.1%
Market85.1%10.1%4.9%
Final66.7%12.4%20.9%
Edge-18.4%+2.3%+16.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Lillestrom

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lillestrom ↓ / Sogndal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 9% 9% 1 9% 10% 7% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Lillestrom and Sogndal expected goals

Lillestrom 0.86
Sogndal 2.32

Total expected goals: 3.18

Lillestrom and Sogndal attack and defence ratings

Lillestrom

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Sogndal

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lillestrom vs Sogndal: result vs prediction

Lillestrom 2 – 1 Sogndal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

NM Cupen

Before and after this match

Lillestrom vs Sogndal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lillestrom 66.7% 1.50 -18.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.6% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 87.6% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 88.4% 1.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lillestrom66.7%
Draw12.4%
Sogndal20.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
Both teams to scoreYes53.0%
No47.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.1%
12 (either side)87.6%
X2 (draw or away)33.3%
Handicap -1Lillestrom win3.8%
Push (exactly one goal)7.8%
Loss88.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.1%
1-29.6%
1-19.2%

Lillestrom vs Sogndal stats

Lillestrom and Sogndal recent form

newest first
Lillestrom WLWDDW
Sogndal WWDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lillestrom vs Sogndal head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Lillestrom wins 2Draws 2Sogndal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-09-13SogndalLillestromNorway 1. Division1-5
2025-06-28LillestromSogndalNorway 1. Division0-0
2023-03-12SogndalLillestromNM Cupen1-2
2020-11-04SogndalLillestrom1. Division0-1
2020-08-04LillestromSogndal1. Division0-2
2017-10-15LillestromSogndalEliteserien1-0
2017-04-30SogndalLillestromEliteserien0-1
2016-09-25LillestromSogndalEliteserien1-2
2016-05-29SogndalLillestromEliteserien2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lillestrom vs Sogndal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 85.1%, draw 10.1%, away 4.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.07 9.70 20.00
Bet365 1.10 8.50 19.00
BetVictor 1.07 9.50 20.00
Betano 1.11 7.50 22.00
Betfair 1.06 9.50 18.00
Dafabet 1.11 9.00 17.00
Marathonbet 1.08 9.30 19.00
Pinnacle 1.08 10.43 15.94
SBO 1.09 7.91 11.56
William Hill 1.10 9.00 19.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.08 ▼ -0.08
X 9.15 ▲ +2.35
2 19.00 ▲ +6.10

4 snapshots recorded, from .