Ranheim
vs
Sogndal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ranheim
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.77.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ranheim is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ranheim vs Sogndal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ranheim vs Sogndal
| Probability | Ranheim | Draw | Sogndal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 19.6% | 25.2% |
| Market | 51.9% | 21.6% | 26.4% |
| Final | 52.8% | 21.1% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
Why Ranheim
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (our 52.8% × 1.78 − 1).
Ranheim vs Sogndal match preview
Ranheim faces Sogndal in the Norway 1. Division with a projected win probability of 59% for the home side, while Sogndal has a 22% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Ranheim, with an 8% probability. The model anticipates a high-scoring match, with an 81% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 2.71 for Ranheim and 1.67 for Sogndal.
In terms of recent form, Ranheim has shown strong results with three wins in their last five matches, while Sogndal has struggled, managing only one win in their last five outings. The head-to-head record favors Sogndal slightly, with two wins compared to Ranheim's one in their last three encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ranheim and Sogndal expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.37
Ranheim and Sogndal attack and defence ratings
Ranheim
Sogndal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ranheim vs Sogndal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ranheim | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.8% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ranheim | 52.8% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| Sogndal | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.3% |
| No | 22.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ranheim win | 36.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.6% |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | |
| 3-1 | 6.6% |
Ranheim vs Sogndal stats
Ranheim and Sogndal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ranheim and Sogndal season so far
Ranheim record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sogndal record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ranheim vs Sogndal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Sogndal | Ranheim | Norway 1. Division | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Sogndal | Ranheim | Norway 1. Division | 0-3 |
| 2025-04-21 | Ranheim | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ranheim vs Sogndal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 21.6%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.78 | 4.25 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 4.30 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 4.38 | 3.59 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.40 |