Stromsgodset
vs
Moss
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stromsgodset
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Stromsgodset is the favourite, not a value bet.
Stromsgodset vs Moss overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stromsgodset vs Moss
| Probability | Stromsgodset | Draw | Moss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.8% | 13.4% | 5.7% |
| Market | 75.2% | 14.5% | 10.3% |
| Final | 76.6% | 14.2% | 9.1% |
| Edge | +1.4% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Why Stromsgodset
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 76.6% × 1.25 − 1).
Stromsgodset vs Moss match preview
Stromsgodset enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 78%, reflecting their recent form of five consecutive wins, followed by a loss. Their expected goals stand at 2.59, suggesting a potent attack, with the most likely scoreline predicted to be 2-0. In contrast, Moss has a lower probability of victory at 7% and an expected goals figure of just 0.68, highlighting their struggles in front of goal.
Moss's recent performances include a mix of results, with two draws and a win in their last five matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 63%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game, while both teams to score has a probability of 46%. The head-to-head record shows one draw in their last encounter, with no wins for either side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stromsgodset and Moss expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Stromsgodset and Moss attack and defence ratings
Stromsgodset
Moss
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stromsgodset vs Moss markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stromsgodset | 76.6% | 1.31 | +1.4% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Stromsgodset win | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stromsgodset | 76.6% |
| Draw | 14.2% | |
| Moss | 9.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stromsgodset win | 61.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 19.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.1% |
| 3-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Stromsgodset vs Moss stats
Stromsgodset and Moss recent form
| Stromsgodset |
LWWWWW |
| Moss |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stromsgodset and Moss season so far
Stromsgodset record
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Moss record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stromsgodset vs Moss head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Moss | Stromsgodset | Norway 1. Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stromsgodset vs Moss odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.2%, draw 14.5%, away 10.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 6.45 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 6.20 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 6.45 | 9.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22 | 6.92 | 8.83 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 8.50 |