Kongsvinger
vs
Stabaek
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kongsvinger
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.86.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kongsvinger is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kongsvinger vs Stabaek
| Probability | Kongsvinger | Draw | Stabaek |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 20.5% | 29.2% |
| Market | 46.2% | 21.6% | 32.2% |
| Final | 47.2% | 21.3% | 31.5% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
Why Kongsvinger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.86.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 47.2% × 2.05 − 1).
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek match preview
Kongsvinger is set to face Stabaek in the Norway 1. Division, with the model indicating a 55% probability of a Kongsvinger victory. The expected goals for Kongsvinger stand at 2.59 compared to Stabaek's 1.78, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Kongsvinger with three wins in their last five matches, while Stabaek has also performed well, recording four wins in their last six outings. The model predicts a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 78%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows one win for each team and one draw, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kongsvinger and Stabaek expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.30
Kongsvinger and Stabaek attack and defence ratings
Kongsvinger
Stabaek
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kongsvinger | 47.2% | 2.12 | +1.0% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kongsvinger | 47.2% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Stabaek | 31.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.7% |
| No | 22.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.5% |
| 2-2 | 7.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek stats
Kongsvinger and Stabaek recent form
| Kongsvinger |
LLWLWW |
| Stabaek |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kongsvinger and Stabaek season so far
Kongsvinger record
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.9 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Stabaek record
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Stabaek | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Kongsvinger | Stabaek | Norway 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Stabaek | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 21.6%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 4.33 | 2.85 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 4.33 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.33 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 4.20 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 4.20 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 4.33 | 2.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 4.40 | 2.93 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 3.86 | 2.68 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .