Start
vs
Lillestrom
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lillestrom
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lillestrom is the favourite, not a value bet.
Start vs Lillestrom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Start vs Lillestrom
| Probability | Start | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.6% | 22.1% | 34.2% |
| Market | 34.8% | 25.8% | 39.3% |
| Final | 37.0% | 24.9% | 38.1% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -0.9% | -1.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 38.1% × 2.42 − 1).
Start vs Lillestrom match preview
Start faces Lillestrom in an Eliteserien clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Start has recorded three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Lillestrom has a slightly better record with four wins, one draw, and one loss. According to our model, Start has a 37% chance of winning, while Lillestrom is slightly favored at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Lillestrom, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 2.11 for Start and 1.87 for Lillestrom.
Both teams are expected to be offensive, as our model indicates a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Lillestrom has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of the last matches against Start. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Start and Lillestrom expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.97
Start and Lillestrom attack and defence ratings
Start
Lillestrom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Start vs Lillestrom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 38.1% | 2.63 | -1.3% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Start | 37.0% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Lillestrom | 38.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.0% |
| No | 25.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.0% | |
| Loss | 65.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.1% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Start vs Lillestrom stats
Start and Lillestrom recent form
| Start |
WLLWLW |
| Lillestrom |
WLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Start and Lillestrom season so far
Start record
- They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Start vs Lillestrom head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Lillestrom | Start | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Lillestrom | Start | Norway 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Start | Lillestrom | Norway 1. Division | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Start vs Lillestrom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 25.8%, away 39.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.74 | 2.42 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.39 |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 3.64 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 3.71 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.40 |