Brann
vs
Molde
Garuda Lions Prediction: Molde
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Brann vs Molde overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brann vs Molde
| Probability | Brann | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.7% | 18.0% | 59.3% |
| Market | 32.5% | 24.0% | 43.5% |
| Final | 30.1% | 22.5% | 47.5% |
| Edge | -2.4% | -1.5% | +3.9% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Molde below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.9% per unit staked (our 47.5% × 2.21 − 1).
Brann vs Molde match preview
Brann faces Molde in an upcoming Eliteserien clash, with the model indicating a probability of 27% for a Brann victory, 20% for a draw, and 52% for a Molde win. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Brann has recorded three wins and two losses in their last five matches, while Molde has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. The expected goals for this match are 1.81 for Brann and 2.49 for Molde, reflecting a competitive encounter based on their recent performances and head-to-head results, where Brann has won once and Molde twice in their last three meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brann and Molde expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.72
Brann and Molde attack and defence ratings
Brann
Molde
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brann vs Molde markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 47.5% | 2.11 | +3.9% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brann | 30.1% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Molde | 47.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% |
| No | 20.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 40.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.2% |
Brann vs Molde stats
Brann and Molde recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brann and Molde season so far
Brann record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Molde record
- They have won 12 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brann vs Molde head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Molde | Brann | Eliteserien | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Molde | Brann | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-29 | Brann | Molde | Eliteserien | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brann vs Molde odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 24.0%, away 43.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.98 | 2.21 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 4.10 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.90 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.88 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 4.01 | 2.16 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.15 |