Fredrikstad
vs
Rosenborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rosenborg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.18.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg
| Probability | Fredrikstad | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.6% | 18.3% | 67.1% |
| Market | 24.6% | 24.8% | 50.6% |
| Final | 22.1% | 23.1% | 54.7% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -1.6% | +4.1% |
Why Rosenborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rosenborg below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (our 54.7% × 1.89 − 1).
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg match preview
Fredrikstad faces Rosenborg in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a strong advantage for the visitors. According to our model, Rosenborg has a 52% chance of winning, while Fredrikstad sits at 24%. The expected goals indicate a likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Rosenborg, with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as there is a 66% likelihood that both will score, and a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form highlights a stark contrast between the two sides; Fredrikstad has recorded one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-W-D-L), while Rosenborg boasts an impressive six consecutive wins (W-D-W-W-W-W). Historically, Rosenborg has dominated this fixture, winning all three of their last encounters against Fredrikstad.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg attack and defence ratings
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosenborg | 54.7% | 1.83 | +4.1% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fredrikstad | 22.1% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Rosenborg | 54.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win | 46.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 32.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 1-3 | 7.9% | |
| 1-1 | 7.7% |
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg stats
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg recent form
| Fredrikstad |
LLDDWD |
| Rosenborg |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg season so far
Fredrikstad record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosenborg record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Rosenborg | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-28 | Fredrikstad | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Rosenborg | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.6%, draw 24.8%, away 50.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.86 | 3.88 | 1.89 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.65 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.76 | 3.78 | 1.84 |
| Pinnacle | 4.00 | 3.83 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .