Rosenborg
vs
Start
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rosenborg
3 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.55 vs 0.92.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Rosenborg vs Start overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rosenborg vs Start
| Probability | Rosenborg | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.7% | 10.0% | 5.3% |
| Market | 74.9% | 15.7% | 9.5% |
| Final | 77.3% | 14.3% | 8.4% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -1.4% | -1.0% |
Why Rosenborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.55 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rosenborg below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (our 77.3% × 1.27 − 1).
Rosenborg vs Start match preview
Rosenborg enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 79%, showcasing their dominance in recent form with four wins and a draw in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 3.55, indicating a potent offensive capability, while Start's expected goals are significantly lower at 0.92. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-0, occurring with a 9% probability, and there is an 82% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In contrast, Start has struggled recently, recording only two wins in their last six matches. Historically, Rosenborg has been dominant in their head-to-head encounters, winning seven out of the last eight matches against Start, who have yet to secure a victory in this fixture. The likelihood of both teams scoring is at 59%, but given the contrasting forms and statistics, Rosenborg appears to be in a favorable position.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rosenborg and Start expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.47
Rosenborg and Start attack and defence ratings
Rosenborg
Start
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rosenborg vs Start markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosenborg | 77.3% | 1.29 | +2.5% | 1.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosenborg | 77.3% |
| Draw | 14.3% | |
| Start | 8.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win | 69.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.1% | |
| Loss | 15.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | |
| 4-0 | 7.6% |
Rosenborg vs Start stats
Rosenborg and Start recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rosenborg and Start season so far
Rosenborg record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Start record
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosenborg vs Start head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Start | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 0-3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Rosenborg | Start | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-01 | Rosenborg | Start | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2020-07-16 | Start | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
| 2018-11-11 | Start | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2018-04-22 | Rosenborg | Start | Eliteserien | 2-0 |
| 2016-09-18 | Rosenborg | Start | Eliteserien | 2-0 |
| 2016-05-12 | Start | Rosenborg | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rosenborg vs Start odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.9%, draw 15.7%, away 9.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 6.34 | 10.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.25 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.26 | 5.60 | 10.25 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.26 | 6.40 | 9.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 6.05 | 9.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 6.63 | 10.04 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 5.70 | 8.10 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .