Lillestrom
vs
Aalesund
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lillestrom
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lillestrom is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lillestrom vs Aalesund
| Probability | Lillestrom | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 21.5% | 38.4% |
| Market | 52.8% | 22.1% | 25.1% |
| Final | 49.7% | 21.9% | 28.4% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -0.2% | +3.3% |
Why Lillestrom
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (our 49.7% × 1.82 − 1).
Lillestrom vs Aalesund match preview
Lillestrom faces Aalesund in the Eliteserien with a predicted scoreline of 2-1, reflecting a 6% likelihood according to our model. Lillestrom holds a 42% probability of winning, while Aalesund stands at 38%, with a draw at 20%. The expected goals for Lillestrom is 2.42, slightly ahead of Aalesund's 2.32, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Both teams have shown strong attacking form, with an 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 83% chance that both teams will score. Lillestrom's recent form includes two wins, one loss, and two draws, while Aalesund has experienced a mixed run with three wins and three losses in their last six matches. In their last three encounters, Lillestrom has won twice and drawn once against Aalesund.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lillestrom and Aalesund expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.21
Lillestrom and Aalesund attack and defence ratings
Lillestrom
Aalesund
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lillestrom vs Aalesund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 49.7% | 2.01 | -3.2% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 49.7% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Aalesund | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.7% |
| No | 22.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 23.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.3% |
| 1-1 | 7.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.0% |
Lillestrom vs Aalesund stats
Lillestrom and Aalesund recent form
| Lillestrom |
LWWWLW |
| Aalesund |
LWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lillestrom and Aalesund season so far
Lillestrom record
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalesund record
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Aalesund | Lillestrom | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Lillestrom | Aalesund | Norway 1. Division | 5-1 |
| 2025-03-31 | Aalesund | Lillestrom | Norway 1. Division | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 22.1%, away 25.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 4.41 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 4.30 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 4.49 | 3.70 |
| SBO | 1.75 | 3.69 | 3.28 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .