Ham-Kam
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sarpsborg 08 FF
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sarpsborg 08 FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
| Probability | Ham-Kam | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 22.5% | 34.4% |
| Market | 31.4% | 25.0% | 43.6% |
| Final | 34.3% | 24.4% | 41.3% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -0.6% | -2.3% |
Why Sarpsborg 08 FF
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (our 41.3% × 2.25 − 1).
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF match preview
Ham-Kam faces Sarpsborg 08 FF in an Eliteserien clash with both teams showing varying recent form. Ham-Kam has recorded three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Sarpsborg 08 FF has a stronger recent performance with four wins and two losses. According to our model, the probabilities for this match indicate a 35% chance for a Ham-Kam victory, a 24% chance for a draw, and a 40% chance for Sarpsborg 08 FF to win.
The expected goals for this match suggest a competitive encounter, with Ham-Kam projected to score 1.67 goals and Sarpsborg 08 FF slightly ahead at 1.79. Our model indicates a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score. Historically, Sarpsborg 08 FF has dominated their recent head-to-head encounters, winning all three of the last matches against Ham-Kam.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF attack and defence ratings
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 41.3% | 2.42 | -2.3% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ham-Kam | 34.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 41.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.9% |
| No | 26.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF stats
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form
| Ham-Kam |
DWLLWL |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF season so far
Ham-Kam record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 FF record
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-07 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-16 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien | 1-7 |
| 2024-03-16 | Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-24 | Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 25.0%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.07 | 3.88 | 2.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.78 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.84 | 2.22 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.35 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .