Fredrikstad
vs
Brann
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brann
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Brann is the favourite, not a value bet.
Fredrikstad vs Brann overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fredrikstad vs Brann
| Probability | Fredrikstad | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 23.6% | 37.0% |
| Market | 35.9% | 25.1% | 39.0% |
| Final | 36.7% | 24.7% | 38.5% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
Why Brann
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 38.5% × 2.45 − 1).
Fredrikstad vs Brann match preview
Fredrikstad faces Brann in an upcoming Eliteserien match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Fredrikstad has a 36% chance of winning, while Brann is slightly favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both sitting at 72%.
In terms of recent form, Fredrikstad has recorded one win in their last six matches (L-W-L-L-D-D), while Brann has been more consistent, winning four of their last six (W-W-L-W-L-W). The expected goals for the match are closely matched, with Fredrikstad at 1.89 and Brann at 1.85. The head-to-head record shows Fredrikstad with one win and Brann with two wins in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fredrikstad and Brann expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Fredrikstad and Brann attack and defence ratings
Fredrikstad
Brann
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fredrikstad vs Brann markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brann | 38.5% | 2.60 | -0.5% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fredrikstad | 36.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Brann | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.9% |
| No | 29.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brann win | 19.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Fredrikstad vs Brann stats
Fredrikstad and Brann recent form
| Fredrikstad |
LWLLDD |
| Brann |
DWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fredrikstad and Brann season so far
Fredrikstad record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brann record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fredrikstad vs Brann head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Brann | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Brann | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Fredrikstad | Brann | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fredrikstad vs Brann odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 25.1%, away 39.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.85 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.58 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.78 | 2.45 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.32 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .