Kristiansund BK
vs
Valerenga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valerenga
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.96.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Valerenga is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga
| Probability | Kristiansund BK | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 19.6% | 51.7% |
| Market | 30.8% | 23.8% | 45.4% |
| Final | 30.3% | 22.8% | 46.9% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -1.1% | +1.6% |
Why Valerenga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.9% per unit staked (our 46.9% × 2.15 − 1).
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga match preview
Kristiansund BK faces Valerenga in an Eliteserien clash on November 7, 2026. The probabilities indicate a 30% chance of a Kristiansund BK victory, a 23% likelihood of a draw, and a 47% chance for Valerenga to win. The expected goals for Kristiansund BK stand at 1.96, while Valerenga's expected goals are higher at 2.60. The most likely scoreline, according to the model, is 1-2, with an 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 80% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Kristiansund BK has struggled, recording one win and five losses in their last six matches, while Valerenga has been more successful with four wins and two draws in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Kristiansund BK with three wins and Valerenga with four wins in their last seven encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.57
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga attack and defence ratings
Kristiansund BK
Valerenga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valerenga | 46.9% | 2.13 | +1.6% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kristiansund BK | 30.3% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Valerenga | 46.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% |
| No | 19.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valerenga win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | |
| 1-3 | 6.0% |
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga stats
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga recent form
| Kristiansund BK |
WLDLLL |
| Valerenga |
WLWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga season so far
Kristiansund BK record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Valerenga | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Kristiansund BK | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-12-10 | Valerenga | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2023-12-06 | Kristiansund BK | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-11 | Kristiansund BK | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 3-2 |
| 2022-07-10 | Valerenga | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2021-12-12 | Kristiansund BK | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.7%, draw 24.0%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.96 | 2.11 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.90 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 3.86 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.98 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 2.69 | 3.30 | 2.09 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .