Sandefjord
vs
Molde
Garuda Lions Prediction: Molde
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.96.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Molde is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sandefjord vs Molde overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sandefjord vs Molde
| Probability | Sandefjord | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.4% | 19.1% | 53.5% |
| Market | 24.1% | 22.0% | 54.0% |
| Final | 24.9% | 21.2% | 53.8% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.7% | -0.1% |
Why Molde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (our 53.8% × 1.79 − 1).
Sandefjord vs Molde match preview
In the upcoming Eliteserien match, Sandefjord hosts Molde with a kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Molde holds a 53% probability of winning, while Sandefjord stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring with a 7% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 84% and both teams to score at 81%.
Recent form shows Sandefjord with a mixed record of W-L-L-L-D-W, while Molde has experienced more consistency with L-W-W-W-D-L. In their last three encounters, Sandefjord has secured two wins against Molde's one, indicating a competitive rivalry. The expected goals for Sandefjord are 1.97, while Molde is anticipated to score 2.70.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sandefjord and Molde expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.66
Sandefjord and Molde attack and defence ratings
Sandefjord
Molde
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sandefjord vs Molde markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 53.8% | 1.86 | -0.1% | 1.79 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandefjord | 24.9% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Molde | 53.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.7% |
| No | 19.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 46.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | |
| 1-3 | 6.1% |
Sandefjord vs Molde stats
Sandefjord and Molde recent form
| Sandefjord |
WLLLDW |
| Molde |
LWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sandefjord and Molde season so far
Sandefjord record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
Molde record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sandefjord vs Molde head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Molde | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Molde | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-06 | Sandefjord | Molde | Eliteserien | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Molde | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | Sandefjord | Molde | Eliteserien | 3-1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Sandefjord | Molde | Eliteserien | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-29 | Molde | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 5-0 |
| 2023-02-24 | Molde | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Molde | Sandefjord | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-24 | Sandefjord | Molde | Eliteserien | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sandefjord vs Molde odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.1%, draw 22.0%, away 54.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.08 | 4.36 | 1.74 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 4.33 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 4.20 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 4.33 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 4.30 | 1.79 |
| Marathonbet | 3.98 | 4.25 | 1.70 |
| Pinnacle | 3.97 | 4.46 | 1.75 |
| SBO | 3.33 | 3.68 | 1.74 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .