Aalesund
vs
Sandefjord
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aalesund
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.82.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aalesund is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aalesund vs Sandefjord
| Probability | Aalesund | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 22.0% | 32.4% |
| Market | 48.1% | 24.3% | 27.6% |
| Final | 47.5% | 23.7% | 28.8% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -0.6% | +1.2% |
Why Aalesund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 47.5% × 1.97 − 1).
Aalesund vs Sandefjord match preview
Aalesund and Sandefjord are set to clash in the Eliteserien on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Aalesund has a 46% probability of winning, while Sandefjord stands at 34%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Aalesund is 2.36, compared to Sandefjord's 2.02. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Aalesund, occurring at a 7% probability.
In terms of recent form, Aalesund has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Sandefjord has two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same timeframe. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of goals, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head history shows Sandefjord with one win against Aalesund in their last encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aalesund and Sandefjord expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.98
Aalesund and Sandefjord attack and defence ratings
Aalesund
Sandefjord
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aalesund vs Sandefjord markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalesund | 47.5% | 2.11 | -0.6% | 1.97 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalesund | 47.5% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Sandefjord | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% |
| No | 25.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.1% |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Aalesund vs Sandefjord stats
Aalesund and Sandefjord recent form
| Aalesund |
LWLWWL |
| Sandefjord |
LLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aalesund and Sandefjord season so far
Aalesund record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sandefjord record
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sandefjord | Aalesund | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.1%, draw 24.3%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.96 | 3.47 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.86 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.95 | 3.51 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .