Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Kristiansund BK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sarpsborg 08 FF
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sarpsborg 08 FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
| Probability | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Draw | Kristiansund BK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.3% | 19.9% | 16.8% |
| Market | 61.6% | 21.6% | 16.8% |
| Final | 62.0% | 21.2% | 16.8% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.4% | +0.0% |
Why Sarpsborg 08 FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (our 62.0% × 1.55 − 1).
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK match preview
Sarpsborg 08 FF is favored to win against Kristiansund BK, with a 64% probability according to our model. The expected goals for Sarpsborg is 2.41, while Kristiansund is projected at 1.19, indicating a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a likelihood of 9%. Additionally, there is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams scoring has a 64% probability.
In terms of recent form, Sarpsborg 08 FF has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Kristiansund BK has won two of their last six. The head-to-head record shows Sarpsborg has not secured a win against Kristiansund in their last three encounters, with two draws and one loss. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK attack and defence ratings
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Kristiansund BK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 62.0% | 1.61 | +0.4% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 62.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Kristiansund BK | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 36.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK stats
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK recent form
| Sarpsborg 08 FF |
WLWWLD |
| Kristiansund BK |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK season so far
Sarpsborg 08 FF record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Kristiansund BK record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Kristiansund BK | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Kristiansund BK | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.6%, draw 21.6%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.51 | 5.54 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 4.15 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.29 | 5.93 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 |