Valerenga
vs
Tromso
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valerenga
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.60.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Valerenga vs Tromso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Valerenga vs Tromso
| Probability | Valerenga | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.7% | 19.3% | 22.0% |
| Market | 37.7% | 25.4% | 36.9% |
| Final | 43.0% | 23.9% | 33.1% |
| Edge | +5.2% | -1.5% | -3.7% |
Why Valerenga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Valerenga below our published probability: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.3% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.52 − 1).
Valerenga vs Tromso match preview
Valerenga faces Tromso in an intriguing Eliteserien clash, with Valerenga holding a 43% probability of winning compared to Tromso's 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model suggests a 2-1 victory for Valerenga, with an expected goals tally of 2.61 for Valerenga and 1.60 for Tromso. Both teams are likely to score, with a 75% probability for this outcome, while there is a strong chance of over 2.5 goals being scored at 79%.
Recent form shows Valerenga with a mixed record of W-W-L-D-W-L, while Tromso has also struggled, recording L-D-D-W-W-L in their last six matches. In their last three encounters, Valerenga has won once, while Tromso has secured two victories, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Valerenga and Tromso expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.21
Valerenga and Tromso attack and defence ratings
Valerenga
Tromso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Valerenga vs Tromso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valerenga | 43.0% | 2.33 | +5.2% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valerenga | 43.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Tromso | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% |
| No | 25.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valerenga win | 39.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-1 | 7.0% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Valerenga vs Tromso stats
Valerenga and Tromso recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Valerenga and Tromso season so far
Valerenga record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tromso record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Valerenga vs Tromso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Tromso | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Valerenga | Tromso | Eliteserien | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Tromso | Valerenga | Eliteserien | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Valerenga vs Tromso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 25.4%, away 36.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.80 | 2.59 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.55 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.76 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.50 |