Sogndal
vs
Kongsvinger
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kongsvinger
1 – 3 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sogndal vs Kongsvinger
| Probability | Sogndal | Draw | Kongsvinger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.1% | 16.1% | 63.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.1% | 16.1% | 63.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kongsvinger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.25 vs 1.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger match preview
Sogndal faces Kongsvinger in the Norway 1. Division with a significant disparity in form and probabilities. Sogndal's recent results show a streak of draws and losses, recording D-L-L-L-D-D, while Kongsvinger has found form with L-W-W-W-W-D. According to our model, Sogndal has a 20% chance of winning, with a draw at 16% and Kongsvinger at 64%. The expected goals for Sogndal stand at 1.91, while Kongsvinger is projected at 3.25.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-3, occurring at a 6% probability. There is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 89% and both teams scoring at 82%. In their last three encounters, Sogndal has not secured a win against Kongsvinger, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sogndal and Kongsvinger expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.16
Sogndal and Kongsvinger attack and defence ratings
Sogndal
Kongsvinger
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kongsvinger | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sogndal | 20.1% |
| Draw | 16.1% | |
| Kongsvinger | 63.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.2% |
| No | 17.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win | 46.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 36.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 6.3% |
| 2-3 | 6.0% | |
| 1-2 | 5.8% |
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger stats
Sogndal and Kongsvinger recent form
| Sogndal |
DLLLDD |
| Kongsvinger |
LWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sogndal and Kongsvinger season so far
Sogndal record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kongsvinger record
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.9 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Kongsvinger | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 5-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sogndal | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-14 | Kongsvinger | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.