Sogndal
vs
Raufoss
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sogndal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sogndal vs Raufoss overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sogndal vs Raufoss
| Probability | Sogndal | Draw | Raufoss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.5% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.5% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sogndal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.33.
Sogndal vs Raufoss match preview
Sogndal hosts Raufoss in a matchup where the home side has a 60% probability of winning, compared to 19% for Raufoss and 21% for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Sogndal, with an expected goals tally of 2.27 for Sogndal and 1.25 for Raufoss. Both teams are likely to score, with a 65% probability, and there is a 68% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Sogndal struggling with three losses and two draws in their last five matches, while Raufoss has recorded one win, two losses, and two draws. In their last three encounters, Sogndal has one win, Raufoss has one win, and there has been one draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sogndal and Raufoss expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Sogndal and Raufoss attack and defence ratings
Sogndal
Raufoss
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sogndal vs Raufoss markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sogndal | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sogndal win | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sogndal | 60.5% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| Raufoss | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sogndal win | 40.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 39.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
Sogndal vs Raufoss stats
Sogndal and Raufoss recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sogndal and Raufoss season so far
Sogndal record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raufoss record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sogndal vs Raufoss head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Raufoss | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Raufoss | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-05-31 | Sogndal | Raufoss | Norway 1. Division | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.