Garuda Lions
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NM Cupen · Full time ·Round of 64

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

0 – 2 Full time

40′D. Karlsbakk
76′S. Sorli

Ski Stadion, Ski

Follo 9%
Draw 15%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 76%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFolloDrawSarpsborg 08 FF
Model18.6%24.1%57.3%
Market6.1%12.2%81.6%
Final9.2%15.2%75.6%
Edge+12.5%+11.8%-24.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.02.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Follo ↓ / Sarpsborg 08 F → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 10% 6% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Follo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals

Follo 1.02
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.92

Total expected goals: 2.93

Follo and Sarpsborg 08 FF attack and defence ratings

Follo

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: result vs prediction

Follo 0 – 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

NM Cupen

Before and after this match

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sarpsborg 08 FF 75.6% 1.32 -24.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.1% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.80 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 90.8% 1.10 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.7% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Follo9.2%
Draw15.2%
Sarpsborg 08 FF75.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)24.4%
12 (either side)84.8%
X2 (draw or away)90.8%
Handicap -1Sarpsborg 08 FF win34.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.9%
Loss42.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
1-29.9%
0-29.8%

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF stats

Follo and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form

newest first
Follo WLW
Sarpsborg 08 FF LDDDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 6.1%, draw 12.2%, away 81.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 16.00 8.45 1.14
Bet365 17.00 7.50 1.12
BetVictor 15.00 8.00 1.12
Betano 14.50 6.60 1.15
Betfair 14.00 7.50 1.10
Marathonbet 15.00 7.50 1.13
Pinnacle 10.80 7.33 1.12
William Hill 15.00 7.00 1.14

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.