Bærum
vs
Lillestrom
1 – 5 Full time
| 16′ | S. Foss | ||
| 44′ | G. Nyheim | ||
| 67′ | Felix Va | ||
| 69′ | S. Ottesen | ||
| 75′ | Y. Paintsil | ||
| 84′ | A. Dacic |
Bærum vs Lillestrom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bærum vs Lillestrom
| Probability | Bærum | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.5% | 22.7% | 59.8% |
| Market | 5.7% | 10.5% | 83.8% |
| Final | 8.7% | 13.6% | 77.8% |
| Edge | +11.8% | +12.3% | -24.0% |
Why Lillestrom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bærum and Lillestrom expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Bærum and Lillestrom attack and defence ratings
Bærum
Lillestrom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bærum vs Lillestrom: result vs prediction
Bærum 1 – 5 Lillestrom
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bærum vs Lillestrom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 77.8% | 1.29 | -24.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.3% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.2% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bærum | 8.7% |
| Draw | 13.6% | |
| Lillestrom | 77.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 22.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 40.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.6% |
Bærum vs Lillestrom stats
Bærum and Lillestrom recent form
| Bærum |
WL |
| Lillestrom |
LLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Bærum vs Lillestrom head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bærum vs Lillestrom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 5.7%, draw 10.5%, away 83.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 18.00 | 8.80 | 1.09 |
| Bet365 | 17.00 | 7.50 | 1.12 |
| BetVictor | 17.00 | 9.00 | 1.09 |
| Betano | 13.50 | 7.90 | 1.12 |
| Betfair | 15.00 | 9.50 | 1.07 |
| Marathonbet | 18.00 | 8.80 | 1.09 |
| Pinnacle | 13.01 | 8.61 | 1.08 |
| William Hill | 15.00 | 8.00 | 1.12 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .