Bærum vs Mjondalen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bærum vs Mjondalen
| Probability | Bærum | Draw | Mjondalen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.3% | 20.7% | 57.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.3% | 20.7% | 57.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mjondalen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
3%
Bærum and Mjondalen expected goals
Bærum
1.42
Mjondalen
2.46
Total expected goals: 3.88
Bærum and Mjondalen attack and defence ratings
Bærum
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Mjondalen
Attack
0.74 -26%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bærum vs Mjondalen: result vs prediction
Bærum 4 – 0 Mjondalen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bærum vs Mjondalen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mjondalen | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bærum | 22.3% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Mjondalen | 57.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.8% |
| No | 29.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mjondalen win | 39.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-3 | 7.0% |