Red Bull Salzburg
vs
AC Milan
0 – 4 Full time
| 15′ | Alphadjo Cissè | ||
| 21′ | Omari Hutchinson | ||
| 32′ | Alphadjo Cissè | ||
| 40′ | Valentin Zabransky | ||
| 49′ | Alphadjo Cissè | ||
| 60′ | Edmund BaidooYorbe Vertessen | ||
| 60′ | Sota KitanoGaoussou Diakité | ||
| 60′ | Alphadjo CissèChristian Pulisic | ||
| 60′ | Francesco CamardaGonçalo Ramos | ||
| 61′ | Adrien RabiotLuka Modrić | ||
| 67′ | Fikayo TomoriFilippo Terracciano | ||
| 72′ | Gonçalo Ramos | ||
| 73′ | Haris TabakovićAboubacar Sidiki Camara | ||
| 73′ | Jesper LindstromDamir Redzic | ||
| 81′ | Leandro MorgallaTim Drexler | ||
| 81′ | Strahinja PavlovicSankhoun Diawara | ||
| 83′ | Filippo Terracciano |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 462 | Accurate passes | 429 |
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
| Probability | Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.4% | 16.1% | 6.6% |
| Market | 25.7% | 25.1% | 49.2% |
| Final | 38.6% | 22.8% | 38.6% |
| Edge | +12.9% | -2.3% | -10.7% |
Why Red Bull Salzburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Red Bull Salzburg below our published probability: +12.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Red Bull Salzburg
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan: result vs prediction
Red Bull Salzburg 0 – 4 AC Milan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lyon vs Crystal Palace
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad — match page
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page
Before and after this match
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 38.6% | 2.59 | +12.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 38.6% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| AC Milan | 38.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 55.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 22.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.9% |
| 3-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan stats
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan recent form
| Red Bull Salzburg |
DWWDWW |
| AC Milan |
DWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan going into this match
Red Bull Salzburg record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-02 | AC Milan | Red Bull Salzburg | UEFA Champions League | 4-0 |
| 2022-09-06 | Red Bull Salzburg | AC Milan | UEFA Champions League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.7%, draw 25.1%, away 49.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.68 | 3.78 | 2.02 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.88 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.78 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.82 | 3.88 | 1.94 |
| SBO | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .