Red Bull Salzburg
vs
AC Milan
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Milan
1 – 2 Predicted score · 2% model probability
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
| Probability | Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.2% | 13.8% | 6.0% |
| Market | 23.8% | 24.3% | 51.9% |
| Final | 37.9% | 21.7% | 40.4% |
| Edge | +56.3% | -10.5% | -45.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan match preview
Red Bull Salzburg faces AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League, with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Salzburg has won five of their last six matches, while Milan has a mix of results, including two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six games. According to our model, the probabilities suggest a close contest, with Salzburg at 38%, a draw at 22%, and Milan slightly favored at 40%.
The expected goals indicate a strong attacking performance from Salzburg, projected at 2.79, compared to Milan's 0.69. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of AC Milan, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% likelihood for both teams to score. This match promises to be an intriguing encounter with significant implications for both sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Red Bull Salzburg
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 40.4% | 2.47 | -45.8% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 94.0% | 1.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 37.9% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| AC Milan | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 1.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 4.4% | |
| Loss | 94.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 3-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan stats
Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan recent form
| Red Bull Salzburg |
WWDWWW |
| AC Milan |
WLDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.8%, draw 24.3%, away 51.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.11 | 4.01 | 1.86 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 3.85 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.87 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.95 | 1.83 |
| Pinnacle | 4.01 | 3.97 | 1.81 |
| SBO | 3.44 | 3.36 | 1.79 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .