Sassuolo
vs
AC Milan
1 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | Matteo GabbiaKoni De Winter | ||
| 26′ | Fedde LeysenCas Odenthal | ||
| 41′ | Pervis Estupinan | ||
| 45′ | Koni De Winter | ||
| 45′ | Pervis EstupinanLuka Modrić | ||
| 60′ | Sebastiano EspositoKieron Bowie | ||
| 60′ | Vasilije AdzicKristian Thorstvedt | ||
| 63′ | Adrien Rabiot | ||
| 68′ | Cas Odenthal | ||
| 78′ | Yunus MusahArdon Jashari | ||
| 78′ | Christian PulisicAlphadjo Cissè | ||
| 79′ | Ignace Van der BremptSimone Cinquegrano | ||
| 79′ | Nemanja MatićLuca Lipani | ||
| 85′ | Samuel ChukwuezeOmari Hutchinson | ||
| 87′ | Gonçalo Ramos | ||
| 90′ | Strahinja Pavlovic | ||
| 90′ | Kristian Thorstvedt |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 380 | Accurate passes | 566 |
Sassuolo vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
| Probability | Sassuolo | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.2% | 25.2% | 27.5% |
| Market | 22.8% | 25.4% | 51.8% |
| Final | 28.9% | 25.4% | 45.7% |
| Edge | +6.1% | -0.0% | -6.1% |
Why AC Milan
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sassuolo and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Sassuolo and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan: result vs prediction
Sassuolo 1 – 1 AC Milan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sassuolo vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 45.7% | 2.19 | -6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 28.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| AC Milan | 45.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 13.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.0% | |
| Loss | 72.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
Sassuolo vs AC Milan stats
Sassuolo and AC Milan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sassuolo and AC Milan going into this match
Sassuolo record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
AC Milan record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-03 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Coppa Italia | 6-1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2023-12-30 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-29 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-5 |
| 2022-08-30 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-22 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2021-11-28 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2021-04-21 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.8%, draw 25.4%, away 51.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.28 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 3.80 | 1.87 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.87 |
| Marathonbet | 4.15 | 3.78 | 1.85 |
| Pinnacle | 4.23 | 3.78 | 1.87 |
| SBO | 3.68 | 3.41 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .