Sassuolo
vs
AC Milan
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Milan
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Sassuolo vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
| Probability | Sassuolo | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 25.3% | 27.9% |
| Market | 22.6% | 25.2% | 52.2% |
| Final | 28.6% | 25.3% | 46.1% |
| Edge | +24.2% | +0.1% | -24.3% |
Why AC Milan
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan match preview
In the upcoming Serie A match, Sassuolo faces AC Milan, with model probabilities indicating a 28% chance of a Sassuolo victory, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 46% chance for AC Milan to win. The expected goals are 1.99 for Sassuolo and 1.52 for AC Milan, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%.
Recent form shows Sassuolo with a mixed record of L-W-D-D-W-L, while AC Milan has performed better with W-L-D-D-W-W. The match is expected to feature goals, with a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score. In their last four head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo has 1 win, AC Milan has 1 win, and there have been 2 draws.
Sassuolo and AC Milan team news
Sassuolo news
- C. Volpato — thigh injury
- D. Boloca — muscle injury
- E. Pieragnolo — knee injury
- F. Cande — knee injury
- I. Kone — broken leg
- J. Idzes — muscle injury
- S. Walukiewicz — muscle injury
- Y. Paz — knee injury
AC Milan news
- A. Saelemaekers — ankle injury
- P. Estupinan — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sassuolo and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Sassuolo and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sassuolo vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 46.1% | 2.17 | -24.3% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 28.6% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| AC Milan | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 13.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.1% | |
| Loss | 72.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 6.9% |
Sassuolo vs AC Milan stats
Sassuolo vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo | AC Milan | Serie A | 3-3 |
| 2023-12-30 | AC Milan | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.6%, draw 25.2%, away 52.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.42 | 3.91 | 1.87 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.83 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 4.30 | 3.80 | 1.82 |
| Pinnacle | 4.30 | 3.85 | 1.84 |
| SBO | 3.61 | 3.33 | 1.82 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .