Napoli
vs
Frosinone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Napoli
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Napoli vs Frosinone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Napoli vs Frosinone
| Probability | Napoli | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.1% | 28.5% | 51.4% |
| Market | 65.6% | 19.8% | 14.6% |
| Final | 54.2% | 22.0% | 23.8% |
| Edge | -45.5% | +8.7% | +36.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Napoli vs Frosinone match preview
Napoli faces Frosinone in their upcoming Serie A match on October 10, 2026. Napoli holds a 54% probability of winning, while Frosinone has a 24% chance, with a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Napoli, occurring at a 6% probability. Both teams have a 54% chance of scoring, and there is a 51% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Napoli has recorded one win in their last six matches (D-W-L-L-L-W), while Frosinone has a stronger recent performance with three wins in their last five (W-D-W-D-W-L). The expected goals for Napoli stand at 1.01, while Frosinone's expected goals are higher at 1.71. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Napoli has one win and one draw against Frosinone, who have yet to secure a victory.
Napoli and Frosinone team news
Napoli news
- A. Buongiorno — knee injury
- A. Meret — muscle injury
- A. Vergara — calf injury
- Alisson Santos — muscle injury
- C. Favasuli — thigh injury
- F. Anguissa — groin injury
- Giovane — groin injury
- L. Marianucci — knee injury
- M. Olivera — groin injury
Frosinone news
- A. Raimondo — health problems
- D. Birligea — muscle injury
- F. Grillitsch — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Napoli and Frosinone expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Napoli and Frosinone attack and defence ratings
Napoli
Frosinone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Napoli vs Frosinone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 54.2% | 1.85 | -45.5% | 1.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 54.2% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Frosinone | 23.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win | 8.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.1% | |
| Loss | 79.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 9.6% |
Napoli vs Frosinone stats
Napoli and Frosinone recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Napoli and Frosinone season so far
Napoli record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Frosinone record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Napoli vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | Napoli | Frosinone | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-19 | Napoli | Frosinone | Coppa Italia | 0-4 |
| 2023-08-19 | Frosinone | Napoli | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2019-04-28 | Frosinone | Napoli | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2018-12-08 | Napoli | Frosinone | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2016-05-14 | Napoli | Frosinone | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2016-01-10 | Frosinone | Napoli | Serie A | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Napoli vs Frosinone odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.6%, draw 19.8%, away 14.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 5.00 | 6.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.70 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.46 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.85 | 6.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.99 | 6.23 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.38 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .