Atalanta
vs
Venezia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atalanta
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Atalanta vs Venezia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Venezia
| Probability | Atalanta | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.3% | 28.5% | 37.2% |
| Market | 60.4% | 22.6% | 17.0% |
| Final | 53.9% | 24.1% | 22.1% |
| Edge | -26.1% | +5.9% | +20.2% |
Why Atalanta
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atalanta vs Venezia match preview
Atalanta faces Venezia in this Serie A matchup, with the home side holding a 53% probability of winning compared to Venezia's 23%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 63% chance of both teams finding the net, and a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form indicates a stark contrast between the two teams; Atalanta has recorded two wins in their last three matches, while Venezia is on a six-match losing streak. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Atalanta has secured one win and one draw against Venezia, who has yet to claim a victory in this matchup. Expected goals suggest a competitive contest, with Atalanta at 1.49 and Venezia at 1.56.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atalanta and Venezia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Atalanta and Venezia attack and defence ratings
Atalanta
Venezia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atalanta vs Venezia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 53.9% | 1.86 | -26.1% | 1.66 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 53.9% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Venezia | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 65.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Atalanta vs Venezia stats
Atalanta vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Atalanta | Venezia | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Venezia | Atalanta | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atalanta vs Venezia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.4%, draw 22.6%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.17 | 5.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 4.05 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.18 | 6.10 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 3.98 | 4.77 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .