Atalanta
vs
Pafos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atalanta
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Atalanta vs Pafos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Pafos
| Probability | Atalanta | Draw | Pafos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 31.4% | 39.8% |
| Market | 64.0% | 21.4% | 14.6% |
| Final | 55.2% | 23.9% | 20.9% |
| Edge | -35.2% | +10.0% | +25.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atalanta vs Pafos match preview
Atalanta faces Pafos in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a probability of 55% for a home win, while a draw stands at 24% and Pafos at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Atalanta are 1.00, compared to Pafos's 1.22, indicating a competitive matchup.
In terms of recent form, Atalanta has recorded three losses followed by two wins, while Pafos has a more varied record with one loss, two wins, one draw, and another win. The model suggests a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this analysis is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atalanta and Pafos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Atalanta and Pafos attack and defence ratings
Atalanta
Pafos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atalanta vs Pafos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 55.2% | 1.81 | -35.2% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.2% | 1.40 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 55.2% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Pafos | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 11.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 71.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | |
| 0-1 | 11.9% |
Atalanta vs Pafos stats
Atalanta vs Pafos head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atalanta vs Pafos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 21.4%, away 14.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.55 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.33 | 6.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.33 | 5.82 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.02 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .