Gent
vs
Aarhus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gent
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Gent vs Aarhus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gent vs Aarhus
| Probability | Gent | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.1% | 20.6% | 13.3% |
| Market | 57.7% | 23.4% | 18.8% |
| Final | 59.8% | 22.7% | 17.4% |
| Edge | +8.4% | -2.8% | -5.5% |
Why Gent
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gent below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gent vs Aarhus match preview
Gent enters the match against Aarhus with a strong recent form, having won their last five matches, with an overall record of W-D-W-W-W-W. The model gives Gent a 66% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0 at 11%. Their expected goals stand at 2.22, indicating a solid attacking performance.
Aarhus, on the other hand, has struggled recently, recording a mix of results with their last six games yielding only one win. They have a 13% chance of winning this fixture, with an expected goals tally of just 0.91. The model suggests a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score, reflecting Gent's offensive strength compared to Aarhus's defensive challenges.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gent and Aarhus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Gent and Aarhus attack and defence ratings
Gent
Aarhus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
- FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page
- HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax — match page
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
- Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe — team news & stats
- CSKA Sofia v Monaco — match page
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor
- Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes — match page
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland — match page
Before and after this match
Gent vs Aarhus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 59.8% | 1.67 | +8.4% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 59.8% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Aarhus | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 43.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 33.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.7% |
Gent vs Aarhus stats
Gent and Aarhus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gent and Aarhus season so far
Gent record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Gent vs Aarhus head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Gent vs Aarhus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.7%, draw 23.4%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.12 | 5.13 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.98 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.17 | 4.78 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.41 | 4.24 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .