Gent
vs
Aarhus
1 – 0 Full time
| 21′ | M. AndersonF. Emmery | ||
| 46′ | S. Van Der HeydenM. Diallo | ||
| 46′ | D. L. GretarssonT. Molgaard | ||
| 58′ | James Bogere | ||
| 62′ | K. ArnstadM. Knudsen | ||
| 66′ | M. VolckaertH. Goore | ||
| 73′ | Mathias Delorge | ||
| 76′ | Markus Solbakken | ||
| 77′ | M. DelorgeL. Lopes | ||
| 77′ | E. KahlF. Tingager | ||
| 77′ | M. SolbakkenJ. Jonsson | ||
| 86′ | Tibe De Vlieger | ||
| 87′ | H. Goore |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 3 |
| 459 | Accurate passes | 428 |
Gent vs Aarhus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gent vs Aarhus
| Probability | Gent | Draw | Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.4% | 21.2% | 12.4% |
| Market | 57.9% | 23.3% | 18.9% |
| Final | 60.0% | 22.8% | 17.2% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -0.5% | -1.6% |
Why Gent
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gent below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gent and Aarhus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Gent and Aarhus attack and defence ratings
Gent
Aarhus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gent vs Aarhus: result vs prediction
Gent 1 – 0 Aarhus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
- FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page
- HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax — match page
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
- Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe — team news & stats
- CSKA Sofia v Monaco — match page
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor
- Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes — match page
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland — match page
Before and after this match
Gent vs Aarhus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 60.0% | 1.67 | +2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gent | 60.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Aarhus | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gent win | 43.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 33.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 1-1 | 10.1% |
Gent vs Aarhus stats
Gent and Aarhus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gent and Aarhus going into this match
Gent record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gent vs Aarhus head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Gent vs Aarhus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.9%, draw 23.3%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.25 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.24 | 5.05 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.69 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .