Aarhus
vs
Sonderjyske
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aarhus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs Sonderjyske
| Probability | Aarhus | Draw | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 21.0% | 28.2% |
| Market | 58.6% | 22.1% | 19.3% |
| Final | 56.7% | 21.8% | 21.5% |
| Edge | -7.9% | -1.0% | +8.9% |
Why Aarhus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.76.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske match preview
Aarhus enters the match against Sonderjyske with a probability of 56% to win, while both teams share a 22% chance of a draw or a Sonderjyske victory. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive showing from Aarhus at 2.35 compared to Sonderjyske's 1.75, indicating a potential for a high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Aarhus, with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Aarhus with mixed results, recording two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Sonderjyske has experienced a win, two losses, and a draw in their recent outings. Head-to-head statistics favor Aarhus slightly, with two wins and two draws against Sonderjyske's single victory in their last five encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aarhus and Sonderjyske expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.11
Aarhus and Sonderjyske attack and defence ratings
Aarhus
Sonderjyske
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 56.7% | 1.77 | -7.9% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 56.7% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Sonderjyske | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% |
| No | 24.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske stats
Aarhus and Sonderjyske recent form
| Aarhus |
DWLDLL |
| Sonderjyske |
WLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aarhus and Sonderjyske season so far
Aarhus record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sonderjyske record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Aarhus | Sonderjyske | Denmark Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sonderjyske | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aarhus | Sonderjyske | Denmark Superliga | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-29 | Aarhus | Sonderjyske | DBU Pokalen | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Sonderjyske | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.6%, draw 22.1%, away 19.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.25 | 4.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.25 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.33 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.25 | 4.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.37 | 4.84 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.81 | 4.29 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .