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Denmark Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 9

AC Horsens vs Aarhus

2 – 2 Full time

35′Adam Herdonsson
58′Magnus Knudsen
59′Ole Martin KolskogenIvan Milićević
59′Adam HerdonssonKarlo Lusavec
60′Alagie Saine
61′Tobias Bech KristensenSebastian Jorgensen
66′Yamirou OuorouKingsley Bimpong
67′Frederik EmmeryStefen Tchamche
67′Janni SerraCallum McCowatt
68′Callum McCowatt
77′Adrian JustinussenJakob Bonde Jensen
77′Abdul MoroJulius Körkkö
84′Colin RoslerJacob Andersen
84′Rasmus CarstensenFrederik Tingager
89′Jakob Bonde Jensen
89′Kristian Arnstad
90′Ivan Milićević
90′Mikael Anderson

CASA Arena, HorsensReferee: Jonas Hansen

AC Horsens 33%
Draw 24%
Aarhus 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 3
53 Possession % 47
3 Corners 2
17 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 3
381 Accurate passes 346

AC Horsens vs Aarhus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AC Horsens vs Aarhus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAC HorsensDrawAarhus
Model61.1%19.3%19.6%
Market23.0%25.1%51.9%
Final32.6%23.6%43.8%
Edge+38.1%-5.8%-32.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AC Horsens ↓ / Aarhus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 2%

AC Horsens and Aarhus expected goals

AC Horsens 2.58
Aarhus 1.45

Total expected goals: 4.03

AC Horsens and Aarhus attack and defence ratings

AC Horsens

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Aarhus

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AC Horsens vs Aarhus: result vs prediction

AC Horsens 2 – 2 Aarhus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Denmark Superliga

Before and after this match

AC Horsens vs Aarhus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Aarhus 43.8% 2.28 -32.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.7% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.5% 1.40 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 80.5% 1.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AC Horsens32.6%
Draw23.6%
Aarhus43.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.7%
Under 2.523.3%
Both teams to scoreYes71.5%
No28.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.2%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)67.4%
Handicap -1Aarhus win8.7%
Push (exactly one goal)10.9%
Loss80.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
3-17.4%
1-17.3%

AC Horsens vs Aarhus stats

AC Horsens and Aarhus recent form

newest first
AC Horsens WLWWLW
Aarhus WLDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AC Horsens and Aarhus going into this match

league record before kick-off

AC Horsens record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.

Aarhus record

  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AC Horsens vs Aarhus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2AC Horsens wins 0Draws 8Aarhus wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-15AarhusAC HorsensFriendlies Clubs2-0
2025-07-02AarhusAC HorsensFriendlies Clubs2-1
2024-06-30AC HorsensAarhusFriendlies Clubs0-3
2023-07-08AarhusAC HorsensFriendlies Clubs2-1
2023-03-03AarhusAC HorsensSuperliga2-0
2022-11-26AarhusAC HorsensFriendlies Clubs0-1
2022-08-26AC HorsensAarhusSuperliga2-1
2020-12-16AarhusAC HorsensDBU Pokalen1-0
2020-12-13AC HorsensAarhusSuperliga1-2
2020-10-18AarhusAC HorsensSuperliga3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AC Horsens vs Aarhus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.0%, draw 25.1%, away 51.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.08 3.72 1.80
Bet365 3.90 3.75 1.83
BetVictor 3.90 3.60 1.80
Betano 4.05 3.70 1.87
Betfair 4.10 3.75 1.80
Marathonbet 4.10 3.72 1.78
Pinnacle 4.26 3.90 1.83
SBO 3.78 3.47 1.81
William Hill 3.90 3.50 1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.05 ▼ -0.25
X 3.72 ▼ -0.16
2 1.80 ▲ +0.08

15 snapshots recorded, from .