Næsby
vs
AC Horsens
2 – 3 Full time
| 1′ | A. Justinussen | ||
| 38′ | O. Kolskogen | ||
| 40′ | A. Kjaergaard | ||
| 41′ | J. Bonde | ||
| 46′ | K. HostM. Schou Jorgensen | ||
| 53′ | J. Bonde | ||
| 55′ | M. Schou Jorgensen | ||
| 56′ | A. KjaergaardR. Knudsen | ||
| 62′ | J. KorkkoK. Lusavec | ||
| 63′ | J. BondeK. Bimpong | ||
| 64′ | K. Bimpong | ||
| 67′ | A. Justinussen | ||
| 73′ | R. LarsenK. Tonnisen | ||
| 73′ | J. TauriainenK. Ehibhatiomhan | ||
| 73′ | O. KoertzA. Tomaselli | ||
| 75′ | A. Tomaselli | ||
| 81′ | A. JustinussenC. Jorgensen | ||
| 81′ | J. BatigiY. Ouorou | ||
| 82′ | M. Kupijbida | ||
| 86′ | K. NyegaardO. Vingaard |
Næsby vs AC Horsens overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Næsby vs AC Horsens
| Probability | Næsby | Draw | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 22.3% | 61.1% |
| Market | 14.1% | 19.3% | 66.5% |
| Final | 14.7% | 20.1% | 65.2% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +3.0% | -5.4% |
Why AC Horsens
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Næsby and AC Horsens expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Næsby and AC Horsens attack and defence ratings
Næsby
AC Horsens
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Næsby vs AC Horsens: result vs prediction
Næsby 2 – 3 AC Horsens
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Næsby vs AC Horsens markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Horsens | 65.2% | 1.53 | -5.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Næsby | 14.7% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| AC Horsens | 65.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Horsens win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 38.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.8% |
Næsby vs AC Horsens stats
Næsby and AC Horsens recent form
| Næsby |
WWL |
| AC Horsens |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Næsby vs AC Horsens head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-12 | Næsby | AC Horsens | DBU Pokalen | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-07 | Næsby | AC Horsens | DBU Pokalen | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Næsby vs AC Horsens odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.1%, draw 19.3%, away 66.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.64 | 4.65 | 1.35 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 5.90 | 4.55 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.33 |
| Marathonbet | 6.35 | 4.65 | 1.34 |
| Pinnacle | 5.92 | 4.60 | 1.34 |
| SBO | 5.32 | 4.11 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 5.80 | 4.00 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .