DBU Pokalen
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Munkebo
vs
Næsby
0 – 5 Full time
Munkebo
11%
Draw
15%
Næsby
74%
Munkebo vs Næsby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Munkebo vs Næsby
| Probability | Munkebo | Draw | Næsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.6% | 15.3% | 74.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 10.6% | 15.3% | 74.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Næsby
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.09.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
76%
No goals
2%
Munkebo and Næsby expected goals
Munkebo
1.09
Næsby
2.92
Total expected goals: 4.01
Munkebo and Næsby attack and defence ratings
Munkebo
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Næsby
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.85 -15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Munkebo vs Næsby: result vs prediction
Munkebo 0 – 5 Næsby
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Munkebo vs Næsby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Næsby | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Næsby win | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Munkebo | 10.6% |
| Draw | 15.3% | |
| Næsby | 74.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Næsby win | 55.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 25.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 8.2% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |