DBU Pokalen
·
Full time
·Round of 64
SGI
vs
Aarhus Fremad
0 – 1 Full time
SGI
8%
Draw
17%
Aarhus Fremad
75%
SGI vs Aarhus Fremad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: SGI vs Aarhus Fremad
| Probability | SGI | Draw | Aarhus Fremad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7.6% | 17.5% | 75.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 7.6% | 17.5% | 75.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Aarhus Fremad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
SGI and Aarhus Fremad expected goals
SGI
0.64
Aarhus Fremad
2.35
Total expected goals: 2.99
SGI and Aarhus Fremad attack and defence ratings
SGI
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Aarhus Fremad
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
0.54 -46%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
SGI vs Aarhus Fremad: result vs prediction
SGI 0 – 1 Aarhus Fremad
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
SGI vs Aarhus Fremad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus Fremad | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 92.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus Fremad win | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SGI | 7.6% |
| Draw | 17.5% | |
| Aarhus Fremad | 75.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 92.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus Fremad win | 52.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 25.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-3 | 10.9% |
SGI vs Aarhus Fremad stats
SGI and Aarhus Fremad recent form
| SGI |
W |
| Aarhus Fremad |
DDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.