DBU Pokalen
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Vatanspor
vs
Aalborg
2 – 1 Full time
Vatanspor
22%
Draw
25%
Aalborg
54%
Vatanspor vs Aalborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vatanspor vs Aalborg
| Probability | Vatanspor | Draw | Aalborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.7% | 24.7% | 53.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.7% | 24.7% | 53.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Aalborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Vatanspor and Aalborg expected goals
Vatanspor
1.12
Aalborg
1.87
Total expected goals: 2.99
Vatanspor and Aalborg attack and defence ratings
Vatanspor
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Aalborg
Attack
0.70 -30%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vatanspor vs Aalborg: result vs prediction
Vatanspor 2 – 1 Aalborg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vatanspor vs Aalborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vatanspor | 21.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Aalborg | 53.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalborg win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.7% |