Lazio
vs
Monza
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lazio
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Lazio vs Monza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lazio vs Monza
| Probability | Lazio | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 26.5% | 37.7% |
| Market | 59.3% | 23.9% | 16.8% |
| Final | 53.4% | 24.5% | 22.0% |
| Edge | -23.5% | +2.6% | +20.9% |
Why Lazio
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lazio vs Monza match preview
Lazio faces Monza in an upcoming Serie A match, with model probabilities indicating a 55% chance of a Lazio victory, a 24% likelihood of a draw, and a 21% chance for Monza. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Lazio, occurring at an 8% probability. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is 66%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 69%, reflecting a potentially competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Lazio has recorded four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Monza has two wins, a draw, and three losses in their recent outings. Historically, Lazio has had the upper hand in their last four meetings, with two wins and two draws against Monza, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Lazio and Monza team news
Lazio news
- A. Furlanetto — knee injury
- A. Gudmundsson — shoulder injury
- A. Marusic — muscle injury
- D. Cataldi — groin injury
- L. Pellegrini — inactive
- N. Rovella — calf injury
Monza news
- I. Toure — contusion
- J. Ziolkowski — foot injury
- M. Pessina — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lazio and Monza expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Lazio and Monza attack and defence ratings
Lazio
Monza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lazio vs Monza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 53.4% | 1.87 | -23.5% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 53.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Monza | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Lazio vs Monza stats
Lazio vs Monza head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | Lazio | Monza | Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Monza | Lazio | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Monza | Lazio | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-23 | Lazio | Monza | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lazio vs Monza odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.3%, draw 23.9%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.18 | 6.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.05 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.13 | 5.69 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.68 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .