Cagliari
vs
Juventus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventus
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Cagliari vs Juventus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cagliari vs Juventus
| Probability | Cagliari | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.2% | 21.7% | 68.1% |
| Market | 15.1% | 24.1% | 60.8% |
| Final | 13.9% | 23.5% | 62.6% |
| Edge | -4.9% | -2.5% | +7.4% |
Why Juventus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.79.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cagliari vs Juventus match preview
Cagliari faces Juventus in Serie A with a significant difference in the model probabilities, as Juventus holds a 62% chance of winning compared to Cagliari's 14%. The expected goals highlight this disparity, with Cagliari at 0.79 and Juventus at 2.22, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the visitors. Recent form shows Cagliari with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Juventus has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a 12% probability, while there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. Both teams have a 50% probability of scoring, indicating a potential for goals from both sides, although Juventus appears to be the more dominant team based on recent performances and statistical expectations.
Cagliari and Juventus team news
Cagliari news
- A. Deiola — knee injury
- Kevin — muscle injury
- M. Felici — knee injury
- R. Idrissi — knee injury
- Y. Trepy — injury
Juventus news
- A. Milik — inactive
- J. Boga — muscle injury
- J. Cabal — thigh injury
- J. Ekhator — muscle injury
- K. Grabara — knee injury
- K. Thuram — knee injury
- K. Yildiz — foot injury
- M. Locatelli — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cagliari and Juventus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Cagliari and Juventus attack and defence ratings
Cagliari
Juventus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cagliari vs Juventus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 62.6% | 1.60 | +7.4% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 13.9% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Juventus | 62.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.4% |
| No | 49.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 46.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 31.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.1% |
| 1-1 | 10.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
Cagliari vs Juventus stats
Cagliari vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Cagliari | Juventus | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Juventus | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Cagliari | Juventus | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Juventus | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-19 | Cagliari | Juventus | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-11 | Juventus | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cagliari vs Juventus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.1%, draw 24.1%, away 60.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.54 | 4.10 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 3.75 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 6.70 | 3.90 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| Dafabet | 6.20 | 4.00 | 1.59 |
| Marathonbet | 6.35 | 3.98 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 6.43 | 3.95 | 1.59 |
| SBO | 5.32 | 3.61 | 1.51 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .