Villarreal
vs
Napoli
3 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | Amir Rrahmani | ||
| 23′ | Georges Mikautadze | ||
| 26′ | Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González | ||
| 33′ | Georges Mikautadze | ||
| 55′ | Giovane Santana Do Nascimento | ||
| 60′ | Giovane Santana Do NascimentoNoa Lang | ||
| 60′ | Scott McTominayLeonardo Spinazzola | ||
| 61′ | Matteo PolitanoDavid Neres | ||
| 62′ | Kevin De Bruyne | ||
| 63′ | Gerard MorenoTani Oluwaseyi | ||
| 63′ | Georges MikautadzeAlex Freeman | ||
| 67′ | Nathan-Dylan Saliba | ||
| 68′ | Alberto MoleiroJuan Foyth | ||
| 72′ | Billy GilmourStanislav Lobotka | ||
| 72′ | Rafael Marin ZamoraLorenzo Lucca | ||
| 83′ | Santi ComesañaAyoze Pérez | ||
| 84′ | Pape GueyeSergi Cardona Bermúdez | ||
| 85′ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo | ||
| 86′ | Tani Oluwaseyi |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 385 | Accurate passes | 324 |
Villarreal vs Napoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Villarreal vs Napoli
| Probability | Villarreal | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 23.6% | 26.9% |
| Market | 45.8% | 26.0% | 28.3% |
| Final | 46.7% | 25.4% | 27.9% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.6% | -0.3% |
Why Villarreal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.44.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Villarreal and Napoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Villarreal and Napoli attack and defence ratings
Villarreal
Napoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Villarreal vs Napoli: result vs prediction
Villarreal 3 – 1 Napoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Villarreal vs Napoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 46.7% | 2.14 | +0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 46.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Napoli | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 29.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 6.7% |
Villarreal vs Napoli stats
Villarreal and Napoli recent form
| Villarreal |
LWWLLL |
| Napoli |
WDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Villarreal vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-17 | Napoli | Villarreal | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
| 2016-02-25 | Napoli | Villarreal | UEFA Europa League | 1-1 |
| 2016-02-18 | Villarreal | Napoli | UEFA Europa League | 1-0 |
| 2011-12-07 | Villarreal | Napoli | UEFA Champions League | 0-2 |
| 2011-09-27 | Napoli | Villarreal | UEFA Champions League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Villarreal vs Napoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 26.0%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.76 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.70 | 3.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.69 | 3.58 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.49 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .