Villarreal
vs
Napoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Villarreal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Villarreal vs Napoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Villarreal vs Napoli
| Probability | Villarreal | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.8% | 21.8% | 21.4% |
| Market | 42.5% | 26.4% | 31.0% |
| Final | 46.1% | 25.3% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +14.2% | -4.6% | -9.6% |
Why Villarreal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.33.
- The market prices Villarreal below the model: +14.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Villarreal vs Napoli match preview
Villarreal faces Napoli in the UEFA Champions League with a strong probability of winning at 57%, while a draw stands at 22% and Napoli at 21%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Villarreal, with a 9% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at 69%, and both teams are likely to score, with a probability of 66%.
In terms of expected goals, Villarreal is anticipated to score 2.22, while Napoli is projected at 1.33. Villarreal's recent form shows two wins followed by four losses, whereas Napoli has a mixed record with one draw, two wins, and three losses in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this analysis is A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Villarreal and Napoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Villarreal and Napoli attack and defence ratings
Villarreal
Napoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Villarreal vs Napoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 46.1% | 2.17 | +14.2% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 46.1% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Napoli | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 35.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Villarreal vs Napoli stats
Villarreal and Napoli recent form
| Villarreal |
WWLLLL |
| Napoli |
DWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Villarreal vs Napoli head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Villarreal vs Napoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 26.4%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.66 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.56 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.63 | 3.12 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.22 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .