La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Real Madrid
vs
Villarreal
1 – 0 Full time
| 10′ | Renato Veiga | ||
| 19′ | Jude Bellingham | ||
| 45′ | Álvaro Fernández CarrerasMarc Cucurella | ||
| 52′ | Trent Alexander-ArnoldVinícius | ||
| 56′ | Santi ComesañaNathan-Dylan Saliba | ||
| 56′ | Juan FoythCarlos Romero | ||
| 62′ | Yan Diomande | ||
| 67′ | Ilias Akhomach ChakkourGerard Moreno | ||
| 67′ | Sergi Cardona BermúdezGeorges Mikautadze | ||
| 68′ | José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix | ||
| 72′ | Vinícius | ||
| 77′ | Arda GülerEduardo Camavinga | ||
| 81′ | Ibrahima Konaté | ||
| 83′ | Antonio Rüdiger | ||
| 84′ | Pau Navarro | ||
| 86′ | Yan DiomandeDenzel Dumfries | ||
| 86′ | Alberto MoleiroNizar El Jmili | ||
| 87′ | Aurelien Tchouameni | ||
| 90′ | Kylian Mbappé |
Real Madrid
68%
Draw
17%
Villarreal
15%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 338 | Accurate passes | 423 |
Real Madrid vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
| Probability | Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| Market | 69.8% | 16.6% | 13.6% |
| Final | 67.8% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.4% | +1.6% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 1.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
96%
3+ goals
85%
No goals
2%
Real Madrid and Villarreal expected goals
Real Madrid
2.84
Villarreal
1.75
Total expected goals: 4.58
Real Madrid and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Real Madrid
Attack
1.49 +49%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Villarreal
Attack
1.66 +66%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: result vs prediction
Real Madrid 1 – 0 Villarreal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Madrid vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 67.8% | 1.47 | -2.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 67.8% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Villarreal | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% |
| No | 20.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 44.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 38.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 6.9% |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.0% |
Real Madrid vs Villarreal stats
Real Madrid and Villarreal recent form
| Real Madrid |
LWWWLW |
| Villarreal |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Madrid and Villarreal going into this match
Real Madrid record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Villarreal record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Real Madrid wins
2Draws
2Villarreal wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 4-4 |
| 2023-12-17 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2023-01-19 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | Copa del Rey | 2-3 |
| 2023-01-07 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.9%, draw 16.5%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 5.84 | 7.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.50 | 7.60 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.39 | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 5.75 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 6.06 | 7.41 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 5.32 | 5.90 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.34 | 6.09 | 7.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.37 ▲ +0.12
X
5.75 ▼ -1.08
2
7.00 ▼ -2.50
67 snapshots recorded, from .