Real Madrid
vs
Villarreal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Madrid
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Real Madrid vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
| Probability | Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.0% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| Market | 69.6% | 16.9% | 13.5% |
| Final | 67.7% | 17.2% | 15.1% |
| Edge | -7.6% | +1.3% | +6.3% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 1.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal match preview
Real Madrid hosts Villarreal in a La Liga clash, with the home side holding a strong 69% probability of victory compared to Villarreal's 14%. Recent form shows Real Madrid with a mixed record of L-W-W-W-L-W, while Villarreal has struggled, winning only 2 of their last 6 matches. The expected goals indicate a dominant performance from Real Madrid at 2.84, while Villarreal sits at 1.75.
Historically, Real Madrid has been successful against Villarreal, winning 5 of their last 6 encounters, with the remaining match ending in a draw. The most likely scoreline for this match is 2-1, occurring with a 7% likelihood. Additionally, there is an 85% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 79% probability that both teams will score.
Real Madrid and Villarreal team news
Real Madrid news
- D. Huijsen — suspended
- Eder Militao — hamstring injury
- F. Mendy — hip injury
- F. Valverde — ankle injury
- R. Asencio — broken leg
- Rodrygo — knee injury
Villarreal news
- T. Buchanan — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Madrid and Villarreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.58
Real Madrid and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Madrid vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 67.7% | 1.48 | -7.6% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 67.7% |
| Draw | 17.2% | |
| Villarreal | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.3% |
| No | 20.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 44.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 38.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 6.9% |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.0% |
Real Madrid vs Villarreal stats
Real Madrid and Villarreal recent form
| Real Madrid |
LWWWLW |
| Villarreal |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Madrid and Villarreal season so far
Real Madrid record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Villarreal record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 4-4 |
| 2023-12-17 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Real Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2023-01-19 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | Copa del Rey | 2-3 |
| 2023-01-07 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Villarreal | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.8%, draw 16.7%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 5.85 | 7.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.39 | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.70 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.99 | 6.99 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.94 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.34 | 6.09 | 7.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
65 snapshots recorded, from .