Plzen
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plzen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav
| Probability | Plzen | Draw | Mlada Boleslav |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.1% | 23.6% | 51.2% |
| Market | 62.5% | 20.3% | 17.2% |
| Final | 53.2% | 21.2% | 25.7% |
| Edge | -37.4% | +3.3% | +34.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav match preview
Plzen faces Mlada Boleslav in the Czech Liga with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 53% probability of a Plzen victory, while Mlada Boleslav has a 26% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Plzen, with a 6% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an engaging match, as there is a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Plzen has struggled with three losses in their last five matches, alongside two draws. In contrast, Mlada Boleslav has shown stronger performance, winning four of their last five games. Historically, Plzen has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matchups against Mlada Boleslav. Expected goals suggest Plzen will score 1.36 while Mlada Boleslav is projected to net 1.99.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav attack and defence ratings
Plzen
Mlada Boleslav
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 53.2% | 1.88 | -37.4% | 1.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 53.2% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Mlada Boleslav | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win | 11.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.9% | |
| Loss | 75.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.0% |
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav stats
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav recent form
| Plzen |
LLLDWD |
| Mlada Boleslav |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Plzen and Mlada Boleslav season so far
Plzen record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Mlada Boleslav record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Plzen | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-19 | Mlada Boleslav | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-5 |
| 2025-03-02 | Mlada Boleslav | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-29 | Plzen | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | Plzen | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-10 | Plzen | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-06 | Mlada Boleslav | Plzen | Czech Liga | 1-3 |
| 2023-04-01 | Mlada Boleslav | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Plzen | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga | 2-0 |
| 2022-04-20 | Mlada Boleslav | Plzen | Czech Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 20.3%, away 17.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.60 | 5.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.76 | 5.38 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.19 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .