Bayer Leverkusen
vs
Freiburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg
| Probability | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.0% | 24.7% | 31.2% |
| Market | 56.0% | 22.1% | 21.9% |
| Final | 53.0% | 22.8% | 24.2% |
| Edge | -11.9% | +2.6% | +9.3% |
Why Bayer Leverkusen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.69.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg match preview
Bayer Leverkusen enters the match against Freiburg with a strong recent form, boasting four wins and a draw in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 2.23, indicating a potent attacking threat. Freiburg, however, is also in good shape, having won five of their last six encounters, with an expected goals figure of 1.68.
According to our model, the probabilities favor Bayer Leverkusen at 52%, while Freiburg has a 25% chance of winning and a 23% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Bayer Leverkusen, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 72%. Historically, Bayer Leverkusen has dominated their recent head-to-heads, winning four out of the last six encounters.
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg team news
Bayer Leverkusen news
- C. Kofane — muscle injury
- E. Ben Seghir — muscle injury
- G. Doue — calf injury
- K. Eichhorn — illness
- M. Culbreath — foot injury
- M. Terrier — muscle injury
Freiburg news
- B. Yilmaz — lacking match fitness
- Y. Suzuki — suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg attack and defence ratings
Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — match page
Before and after this match
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 53.0% | 1.89 | -11.9% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 53.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Freiburg | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.2% |
| No | 27.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 56.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg stats
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg recent form
| Bayer Leverkusen |
WWWWDW |
| Freiburg |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg season so far
Bayer Leverkusen record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
Freiburg record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 5-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2023-10-29 | Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-03 | Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2022-05-14 | Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2021-12-19 | Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 22.4%, away 22.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.47 | 4.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.25 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 4.40 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 4.54 | 4.36 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.74 | 3.84 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .