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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

2 – 2 Full time

4′Stefano Marino
18′Stefano Marino
30′Steffen Tigges
45′Iván San José CantalejoMitchell Weiser
59′Niclas Füllkrug
63′Eren DinkciCédric Itten
65′Niclas Füllkrug
66′Stefano MarinoRayan Philippe
66′Laurin UlrichTom Baack
75′Gabriel VidovićRuben Müller
75′Steffen TiggesMarvin Pieringer
79′Ludovit ReisDariusz Stalmach
86′Youri Regeer
88′Youri RegeerPaul Erevbenagie
88′Mattes HansenJonah Sticker

Weser-Stadion, BremenReferee: Robert Schroder

Werder Bremen 49%
Draw 25%
SC Paderborn 07 26%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 11
11 Shots on target 4
61 Possession % 39
5 Corners 3
11 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 9
537 Accurate passes 320

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWerder BremenDrawSC Paderborn 07
Model34.4%29.9%35.7%
Market53.6%23.1%23.3%
Final48.8%24.8%26.4%
Edge-19.2%+6.8%+12.4%

Confidence: Medium

Why Werder Bremen

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Werder Bremen ↓ / SC Paderborn 0 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 8%

Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals

Werder Bremen 1.55
SC Paderborn 07 1.43

Total expected goals: 2.98

Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 attack and defence ratings

Werder Bremen

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.09 +9%

SC Paderborn 07

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: result vs prediction

Werder Bremen 2 – 2 SC Paderborn 07

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Werder Bremen 48.8% 2.05 -19.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.6% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.6% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.6% 1.52 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Werder Bremen48.8%
Draw24.8%
SC Paderborn 0726.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%
Both teams to scoreYes59.6%
No40.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.6%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)51.2%
Handicap -1Werder Bremen win16.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss65.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
1-28.4%
0-08.3%

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 stats

Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 recent form

newest first
Werder Bremen DWDWLW
SC Paderborn 07 LWLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 going into this match

league record before kick-off

Werder Bremen record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

SC Paderborn 07 record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Werder Bremen wins 3Draws 2SC Paderborn 07 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-08Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs2-2
2024-10-30SC Paderborn 07Werder BremenDFB Pokal0-1
2022-10-19SC Paderborn 07Werder BremenDFB Pokal2-2
2022-01-22SC Paderborn 07Werder Bremen2. Bundesliga3-4
2021-08-15Werder BremenSC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga1-4
2020-06-13SC Paderborn 07Werder BremenBundesliga1-5
2019-12-08Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga0-1
2015-04-26SC Paderborn 07Werder BremenBundesliga2-2
2014-11-29Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07Bundesliga4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.4%, draw 23.3%, away 23.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.84 4.26 4.21
Bet365 1.80 4.20 4.10
BetVictor 1.75 4.00 4.10
Betano 1.78 4.00 4.20
Betfair 1.80 4.10 4.20
Dafabet 1.82 4.10 4.10
Marathonbet 1.79 4.15 4.10
Pinnacle 1.78 4.14 4.30
SBO 1.79 3.52 3.52
William Hill 1.75 3.90 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.79 ▲ +0.24
X 4.14 ▼ -0.06
2 4.10 ▼ -1.40

53 snapshots recorded, from .