Borussia Dortmund
vs
Werder Bremen
2 – 2 Full time
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
| Probability | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.2% | 20.0% | 10.8% |
| Market | 70.7% | 17.3% | 12.1% |
| Final | 70.3% | 18.0% | 11.7% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +2.8% | -1.3% |
Why Borussia Dortmund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen attack and defence ratings
Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: result vs prediction
Borussia Dortmund 2 – 2 Werder Bremen
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
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- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 70.3% | 1.42 | -1.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 70.3% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Werder Bremen | 11.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 30.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen stats
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen recent form
| Borussia Dortmund |
WWWWWW |
| Werder Bremen |
WDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-13 | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-31 | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-09 | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-20 | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-20 | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2021-04-18 | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 4-1 |
| 2020-12-15 | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.7%, draw 17.3%, away 12.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.94 | 8.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 5.85 | 8.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.64 | 7.89 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 5.32 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .