Mainz 05
vs
Bayer Leverkusen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Probability | Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 22.6% | 37.7% |
| Market | 32.2% | 24.7% | 43.1% |
| Final | 34.1% | 24.2% | 41.7% |
| Edge | +7.5% | -2.1% | -5.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen match preview
Mainz 05 will host Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a competitive matchup, with Bayer Leverkusen holding a slight edge at 40% probability of victory compared to Mainz 05's 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 2.40 for Mainz and 2.10 for Leverkusen. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, with an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Mainz 05 has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Bayer Leverkusen has achieved four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. Historically, Bayer Leverkusen has dominated their recent encounters, winning four of the last six matchups, with Mainz 05 yet to secure a victory in this stretch.
Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen team news
Mainz 05 news
- D. Kohr — foot injury
- O. Ruoppi — knee injury
- P. Nebel — muscle injury
- R. Zentner — hand injury
- S. Widmer — knee injury
- Silas — broken shinbone
Bayer Leverkusen news
- C. Kofane — muscle injury
- G. Doue — calf injury
- K. Eichhorn — illness
- M. Culbreath — foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.50
Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen attack and defence ratings
Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 41.7% | 2.40 | -5.4% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.7% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 34.1% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.9% |
| No | 21.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.0% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.7% |
| 2-2 | 7.3% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen stats
Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
| Mainz 05 |
WLWDWW |
| Bayer Leverkusen |
WWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 3-4 |
| 2025-05-17 | Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-14 | Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-23 | Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2023-02-19 | Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2022-08-27 | Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2022-02-18 | Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 3-2 |
| 2021-09-25 | Bayer Leverkusen | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.2%, draw 24.7%, away 43.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.01 | 3.98 | 2.31 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.90 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.93 | 3.88 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 3.97 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 2.63 | 3.39 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .