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Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

3 – 4 Full time

5′Robert Andrich
9′Patrik Schick
20′Phillip Tietz
33′Anthony Caci
35′Sheraldo Becker
42′Anthony Caci
55′Jarell Quansah
65′Moussa Diaby
66′Ibrahim MazaMartin Terrier
70′Eric MartelLee Jae-Sung
70′Anthony CaciDanny da Costa
70′Kacper PotulskiRansford Konigsdorffer
75′Afonso MoreiraNathan Tella
75′Moussa DiabyMalik Tillman
76′Lee Jae-Sung
77′Sheraldo BeckerBenedict Hollerbach
81′Kaishu SanoLennard Maloney
83′Patrik SchickJonas Hofmann
84′Aleix GarcíaEqui Fernández
90′Benedict Hollerbach
90′Jarell Quansah

MEWA Arena, MainzReferee: Max Burda

Mainz 05 34%
Draw 24%
Bayer Leverkusen 42%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

23 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 7
47 Possession % 53
4 Corners 3
11 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
367 Accurate passes 433

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
Model39.7%22.6%37.7%
Market32.1%24.8%43.0%
Final34.0%24.3%41.7%
Edge+1.9%-0.6%-1.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mainz 05 ↓ / Bayer Leverkus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 5% 4% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 5% 5% 4+ 4% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 3%

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

Mainz 05 2.39
Bayer Leverkusen 2.10

Total expected goals: 4.50

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen attack and defence ratings

Mainz 05

Attack 1.62 +62%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: result vs prediction

Mainz 05 3 – 4 Bayer Leverkusen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 41.7% 2.40 -1.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.7% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 78.9% 1.27 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.3% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mainz 0534.0%
Draw24.3%
Bayer Leverkusen41.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.7%
Under 2.520.3%
Both teams to scoreYes78.9%
No21.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.3%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)66.0%
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win21.8%
Push (exactly one goal)16.0%
Loss62.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.7%
2-27.3%
2-16.9%

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen stats

Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

newest first
Mainz 05 WLWDWW
Bayer Leverkusen WWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Mainz 05 wins 2Draws 6Bayer Leverkusen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28Bayer LeverkusenMainz 05Bundesliga1-1
2025-10-18Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga3-4
2025-05-17Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga2-2
2025-01-14Bayer LeverkusenMainz 05Bundesliga1-0
2024-02-23Bayer LeverkusenMainz 05Bundesliga2-1
2023-09-30Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-3
2023-02-19Bayer LeverkusenMainz 05Bundesliga2-3
2022-08-27Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga0-3
2022-02-18Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga3-2
2021-09-25Bayer LeverkusenMainz 05Bundesliga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 24.8%, away 42.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.01 3.98 2.31
Bet365 3.00 3.80 2.20
BetVictor 2.80 3.75 2.10
Betano 2.92 3.80 2.25
Betfair 3.00 3.90 2.20
Dafabet 2.95 3.90 2.25
Marathonbet 2.93 3.88 2.25
Pinnacle 3.01 3.90 2.24
SBO 2.63 3.39 2.20
William Hill 2.88 3.60 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▲ +0.27
X 3.88 ▲ +0.14
2 2.24 ▼ -0.11

45 snapshots recorded, from .